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    • girl fighting against AI with Arnis

    • Arnis / Eskrima / Kali – Statistics & Probability

      Train your teen to fight back when AI floods the world with “confident” numbers.
      Arnis teaches angles, timing, and control. This course teaches your teen to control uncertainty and stop getting fooled by data.

      ✅ Start here (free)

      This course is built as micro‑presentations: short, clear screens that teach one concept at a time. That’s how real statistical thinking is built — without drowning.

      1. Learn: read the micro‑presentations (on-site)
      2. (Paid) Drill: take the quiz and lock in your score
      3. (Paid) Belt Exam: prove the belt section and rank up

      Arnis rule: don’t swing wildly. Use clean angles, good distance, and correct timing. That’s exactly what probability and statistics teach your brain.

      👨‍👩‍👧 For parents: why this course matters

      AI can generate persuasive charts, “studies,” and statistics instantly — including misleading ones. The advantage goes to the person who can challenge the numbers and ask: “What’s the sample? What’s the bias? What’s the uncertainty? What’s the real claim?”

      This course builds that advantage with structured training: Probability first (your teen’s guard), then Statistics (your teen’s counter).

      Disclaimer: This training builds skill and measurable progress, but does not guarantee academic or career outcomes.

      🎯 For teens: the mission

      AI will throw numbers at you like rapid‑fire strikes. Your job is to stay calm, think clearly, and respond with skill.

      • Probability = your guard. You don’t panic when uncertainty shows up.
      • Statistics = your counter. You can test claims and break weak evidence.
      • Your advantage: you’ll spot tricks your classmates miss.

      If you like training, send the dojo to a friend and compare belts. The goal is to become the person who can say: “Show me the data — and show me the uncertainty.”

      🧠 What your teen will learn
      • Core probability rules, conditional probability, Bayesian updating, and expected value
      • Distributions, spread, shape, and why averages can mislead
      • Sampling, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing
      • Correlation vs causation, regression basics, and model‑checking habits
      • How to spot misleading charts, biased samples, and weak evidence

      This is the skill that protects you from getting manipulated by “statistics” online.

      🥋 How training works (simple + structured)
      • Micro‑presentations (short screens, bite‑sized learning)
      • (Paid) Auto‑graded drills/quizzes with retries
      • (Paid) Belt exams to prove progress
      • Moodle tracking: scores, completion, progress history
      • No instructor technical Q&A required — students progress via training + repetition + retakes

      Learn → drill → test → rank up. That’s the Arnis dojo system.

      🥋 Belt map (White → Black)

      Belts are structured so your teen builds a real “fighter’s progression”: guard first (probability), then counter (statistics).

      • White Belt — “Stance & Guard: Foundations of Chance”
        Lessons: PROB‑01 → PROB‑05
      • Yellow Belt — “Timing & Reads: Conditional, Bayes, and Value”
        Lessons: PROB‑06 → PROB‑10
      • Orange Belt — “Transition Sparring: From Chance to Data”
        Lessons: PROB‑11 → STAT‑03
      • Green Belt — “Range Control: Spread, Shape, and the Bell Curve”
        Lessons: STAT‑04 → STAT‑08
      • Blue Belt — “Counter Strikes: Relationships & Sampling Discipline”
        Lessons: STAT‑09 → STAT‑14
      • Brown Belt — “Pressure Test: Confidence & Hypothesis Under Fire”
        Lessons: STAT‑15 → STAT‑19
      • Black Belt — “Disarm the Data: Design + Anti‑BS Mastery”
        Lessons: STAT‑20 → STAT‑24
        Black Belt Test: comprehensive final exam
      🏷️ Free vs Dojo Membership (paid)

      Free (Guest Training)

      • Access the learning micro‑presentations (on-site)
      • See the full curriculum and belt map
      • Preview how the dojo system works

      Dojo Membership (Paid)

      • Full access to all drills, quizzes, and belt exams
      • Belt tracking and certificates
      • Parent visibility of progress and scores inside Moodle

      Founders / Inauguration Price: $5 per course for 30 days (about the price of a coffee). This is the launch price while the dojo is expanding — as more belts, exams, and courses are added, the price will rise.

      📚 Curriculum / Training Forms

      Part I — Probability (the Guard)

      • PROB‑01: The Random World — definitions and basic laws
      • PROB‑02: What “Random” Means — patterns over many trials
      • PROB‑03: Sample Spaces & Events — map outcomes before calculating
      • PROB‑04: Counting Strategies — the engine behind many problems
      • PROB‑05: Core Rules — complements, unions, intersections
      • PROB‑06: Independence vs Dependence — when events affect each other
      • PROB‑07: Conditional Probability — probabilities with new information
      • PROB‑08: Bayesian Updating — evidence‑driven belief updates
      • PROB‑09: Expected Value — decision‑making under uncertainty
      • PROB‑10: Random Variables — outcomes as analyzable numbers
      • PROB‑11: Random Walks — long‑run behavior and intuition checks
      • PROB‑12: Probability Reality Checks — training better intuition

      Part II — Statistics (the Counter)

      • STAT‑01: Description vs Inference — what data can justify
      • STAT‑02: Visualizing Data — plots that reveal structure
      • STAT‑03: Center — mean/median/mode choices
      • STAT‑04: Spread — variance, SD, IQR
      • STAT‑05: Shape — skew, multimodal, heavy tails
      • STAT‑06: Distribution Families — common models
      • STAT‑07: Normal Curve — z‑scores and percentiles
      • STAT‑08: Central Limit Idea — why inference works
      • STAT‑09: Correlation — measuring association
      • STAT‑10: Simple Regression — modeling relationships
      • STAT‑11: Residuals & Fit — checking model weaknesses
      • STAT‑12: Probability for Inference — the backbone of tests
      • STAT‑13: Sampling — populations vs samples
      • STAT‑14: Sampling Bias — how polls go wrong
      • STAT‑15: Standard Error — how far off you might be
      • STAT‑16: Confidence Intervals — real meaning of margin of error
      • STAT‑17: Hypothesis Testing — claims on trial
      • STAT‑18: p‑Values — false positives and misreads
      • STAT‑19: Power & Practical Impact — significance vs importance
      • STAT‑20: Experimental Design — controls and randomization
      • STAT‑21: Confounding — observational study caution
      • STAT‑22: Regression to the Mean — why extremes often fade
      • STAT‑23: Misleading Statistics — common data tricks
      • STAT‑24: Statistics Everywhere — a repeatable evaluation checklist

      Disclaimer: This course provides education and training and cannot guarantee a specific job outcome.

      ✅ Belt Test Rules (read before testing)

      Belts are proof of skill. Your teen earns belts through drills and belt exams.

      Passing score: 80%
      Retries: Unlimited
      Score policy: Best score counts (highest score recorded; retakes cannot lower record)

      Eligibility: completing required drills/quizzes unlocks the belt test.

      Question style: fixed quizzes/exams (clear 4‑option multiple choice). This dojo is optimized for speed and consistency of training.

      Optional anti‑spam cooldown (recommended): add a cooldown after failed attempts to reduce rapid guessing and encourage real review.

      Notes + Integrity

      • Drills: open‑notes is allowed (learning + repetition).
      • Belt tests: closed‑notes (or allow one page of handwritten notes).
      • You vs AI: no AI tools during belt tests, no outside help.
      • Parent presence encouraged: a parent nearby during belt tests for accountability.

      Disclaimer: Belts and certificates show progress in this course; they do not guarantee academic or career outcomes.

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